Policy Simulation At Hongo Campus: Accelerating Tensions in the Indo-Pacific

December 9, 2024

Published: December 02, 2024
Written by Riko Nakagawa

TUFS Area Studies Center (TASC) held a policy simulation event at the Hongo campus on September 19, 2024, joined by more than 20 participants including three guests from Europe and Japanese professors and TUFS students. The simulation focused on the Indo-Pacific region, the Ukraine crisis, and other factors such as China's strengthening power and its large-scale military exercises, some of which were conducted in the Taiwan Straight.

Navigating Complexity: Policy Simulation on Global Crises

The policy simulation focused on the crises in Ukraine and Taiwan, highlighting the Indo-Pacific situation. Participants were organized into five teams: the blue team comprised NATO, along with the US and Japan, while the red team included China, Russia, and North Korea.

Three sessions with different scenarios were conducted to analyze each team's movements. In the first session, each team made their strategic goals from four perspectives: diplomacy, information, military, and economic. After every team set up their goals, the second session began, focussing on Russia��s invasion of Ukraine. Each team was given the opportunity to hold summits and military exercises to strengthen alliances and address threats.

As the simulation progressed, the situation changed rapidly and each team had to react immediately while considering the other teams��s response. The last session presented a black swan situation in which Ukraine became a member of NATO.

Blue Team's Navigation and Strategic Choices in Global Crises

The Blue Team's response showed a strong opposition to the Red Team��s unilateral change to the status quo. The US took a step back from the situation, adopting a bystander position amid the rising tensions between the blue and red teams. In contrast, Japan responded proactively to the ongoing developments by holding unilateral summits and Foreign Ministers' Meetings. Additionally, when China criticized Japan's treatment of Taiwan and imposed economic sanctions that halted rare earth exports, Japan collaborated with relevant countries and adopted a strong stance.

NATO showed its presence during the entire setting, and it committed to holding military exercises with US allies. When NATO voted to admit Ukraine, Russia naturally opposed this decision, threatening to use nuclear weapons in response which highlights the rising tension between Russia and other European Countries.

This situation highlights the complexity of international relations and how the strategic choices of each country can influence one another. Moving forward, it will be crucial to observe how these tensions evolve and how each nation responds to the unfolding developments.

Red Team Dynamics in the Ukraine and Indo-Pacific Crises

Overall, despite taking a tough stance, each country in the red team took different approaches. Russia accelerated its invasion of Ukraine, with the support from other red team members. Russia aimed to strengthen its ties with neighboring countries by holding military exercises in the South China Sea. This military exercise was led by China, with an interest in sealing off key ports in Taiwan.

While China has maintained a neutral stance in seeking agreement and stability from the international community, there have been signs that it views cooperation between Japan, the United States, and South Korea, as a threat regarding their relationship involving the Taiwan Strait. In contrast, North Korea continued its nuclearization efforts to enhance its international standing. As a result, the focus of the red team members varied between Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific.

Ultimately, these divergent strategies among the red-team countries underscore the complexities of regional dynamics and the differing priorities each nation faces. As the situation develops, the interplay between military actions, diplomatic maneuvers, and economic pressures will significantly shape the future landscape of the Ukraine and Indo-Pacific crises.

Comment from the participant: ��An enlightening exercise in the sense of analyzing real-world policy making��

A student from the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, who participated in the simulation as a member of the U.S. team, described the gaming as ��a very exciting simulation.��

��It was challenging for the US to let our allies take more responsibility for securing their regional security while ensuring the role that the U.S. is supposed to play. We were helped by the initiatives taken by the NATO and Japan teams.��

In the final scenario of the simulation, the facilitator set the situation where every country and entity had to make a statement about the assumption that NATO had decided to let Ukraine join NATO.

��We needed to comprehensively consider the national interests, impacts on regional security, and international dynamics based on the supposition that the U.S. supports Ukraine's NATO membership. It was an enlightening exercise in the sense of analyzing real-world policymaking,�� as quoted by the TUFS student.