France's Indo-Pacific Strategy ---Insights from French Institute of International Relations

2024.11.27

Reported by Riko Nakagawa

September 2024, Paris, France, Director of Center for Asian Studies, French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), Marc Julienne (third from right) and research fellow, head of Japan and Indo-Pacific Research, Center for Asian Studies, C��line Pajon (third from left), responded to questions and concerns the emerging concept of Indo-Pacific and the French Strategy.

France's Strategic Military Signaling in the Indo-Pacific: Strengthening Regional Alliances and Power Projection

-----Although there is a significant distance between France and the Indo-Pacific, France is signaling their presence in the Indo-Pacific region. The number of multilateral exercises between the European nations and South East Asian countries has been rising. Regarding this situation, what is the strategy behind the French policy in the region?

The demonstration of France��s military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific is aimed at signaling to the adversaries and regional counterparts. For example, a French first-rank frigate participated in a multilateral exercise in the South China Sea (Valiant Shield 2024) for the first time. This was a part of the strategic signaling policy to the adversaries, which demonstrated France's capability to demonstrate its power far from the mainland and regional connectivity. Furthermore, the French naval actions appealed to like-minded partner forces in the region, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, to demonstrate a shared commitment and maintain a network that shares fundamental values. The goal of the French strategy is to establish partnerships with partner forces throughout military participation, such as joint exercises and port calls.

Although France is making efforts to signal its status, the lack of strategic communications in the area remains the biggest concern. The publicly available information from the French government is scarce, which can carry several risks. Lack of communication can lead to mistrust or suspicion within the partners. Furthermore, there are risks of losing control of the narrative to partners and adversaries, who might misinterpret the French intentions within the Indo-Pacific. From this point of view, it is vital for France to improve communication with its partners and signal to broader audiences to achieve global understanding.

Deterrence through Unity and Readiness

-----As a like-minded country in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan and France have been cooperating in the area from different fields. What will be an important factor in future cooperation?

The most important strategy is to send messages to the Indo-Pacific competitors and rivals. The continuation of military exercises and multilateral cooperation in the area will send a strong message to the adversaries in the region. This strategic signaling is an indispensable factor in controlling any possible red team escalation.

Additionally, refining skills and readiness are also important. Training between allied forces signals their strength in defending their shared interests, giving the message to their adversaries, ��We are watching.��

Europe��s Changing Defense Landscape and the Strengthening of US-European Relations in NATO

-----Regarding the US presidential election, there are suggestions that European strategic autonomy, distancing itself from the US militarily, is a possibility. How do you see the future of NATO and the US alliance?

Since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the idea of regional defense has dramatically changed in Europe. Russia now represents the primary threat to European nations, driving the rise of demand for military preparedness within the region. Europe is now openly addressing Russia as a global threat, becoming a key strategic challenge for European nations.

Additionally, the upcoming US presidential election is indeed a controversial topic in Europe, with rising concern about the future of US-European relations in NATO. However, regardless of the election��s outcome, the importance of US-European partnership in NATO is expected to remain, potentially growing even stronger. The US and NATO will likely continue their alliance in different fields, especially for the strengthening of the Indo-Pacific alliance.

Please visit the following websites for more detailed information about the French Institute of International Relations report on the Indo-Pacific.

https://www.ifri.org/en/regions/asia-and-indo-pacific

https://www.ifri.org/en/mots-cles-geographiques/indo-pacific